大家好,我是shousake,接着,我继续聊上一篇结尾的话题——关于交易的策略.
四年周期:
1.历史概述
提到四年周期,大家可能并不陌生.比特币有一个特点,那就是大约每四年减半,牛市和熊市也便有了四年的周期.会想17年著名的勒索病毒Wannacry, 当时病毒要求比特币支付来获取解密私钥,当时比特币已经到达了30000美元的高价! 可见当时比特币已经很具有影响力了, 当时其实好多交易所还没有,有的也就是火币,Gate.io 这些了.我刚开始关注比特币是在2019,2020年时候,当时我还不是很懂,不过那个周期最低跌到了3000美元左右. 后来的2021年11月左右, 又来到了新的高点——69000美元. 当时就觉得价格很高了,不过因为非常忙,也没有机会去研究币圈,不过牛市结束后,跌倒了15000美元左右. 直到2024年,我才正式接触币圈.2024年的牛市也是来到了109000左右,现在(05/2025)又来了牛市,不过这是和2024年的牛市一起的.
2.这个规律还存在吗?
有的! 不过大家可以根据历史看出,对于比特币来说,这个周期不一定是恰好四年,今年的牛市就可能会延长,但一定会结束. 就像上篇文章所提到的,即使是特朗普的存在,也不能改变大局的走向. 所以我们并不晚,仍然有赚钱的机会.
3.这个机会能怎么利用?
从最简单的方法讲, 首先,比特币比较具有突破性,而不同于山寨币中的“山寨季”. 狗狗币(DOGE)早在以前达到了0.71美元的高价,而在2024年的牛市只到达了0.48美元. 说明了什么? 对于很多其他币种来说,牛市不等于最高. 为什么说到这里? 因为之前我听一个人说道,如果你买了比特币,五年之内一定能盈利. 我们在假设4年周期是理想的情况下,这句话的基础建立在突破的前题下. 有的人买了山寨币,哪怕是像以太坊这种知名的Layer1,非山寨币,总觉得我有一天能解套,于是勇敢追多,赚了也不跑,总想着暴富,结果被套,好则补仓后减少亏损,坏则直接割肉. 其实我们可以改进方案: 对于顶端,我们可以做空,底部可以做多,中间位置进行等待. 这样一来,我们就不要等5年,而是几乎两年就可以实现不错了盈利. 那么这个操作的关键问题在于什么的?我们无法判断高点和低点! 其实,即便是准确的无法判断,我们也能大概知道,比如说趋势线.趋势线是我们判断顶部或者底部重要工具,判断是否突破. 在一个范围内,我们把想要入场的资金分批入场,甚至可以是一个定投计划,如果跌幅超过一定,我就投一次. 有人可能想了,这不就是补仓吗.没错,但是你在顶部这么做你难道不会害怕吗? 在底部做是有相当好的收益,因为你不怕长期被套. 然而,相反在顶部做空虽然也是不错的选择,但是顶部的事情很难料,2024年的突破就是一次超常的,而现在价格又是居高不下, 目前还没有回调, 按道理应该回调的如果被套空单可以通过回调解套. 甚至有人认为这次得到150000到200000的高价, 不过网上有些评论没有实际意义,早些又有些人非得说某某币,几倍几十倍,比如狗狗币,甚至说到了3USDT一个,至少最近几年不太可能了,连他的历史价格都没有突破(0.71左右). 很多情况下要做出自己的判断.
总结:
本期给大家带来了最简单的策略,我称之为“四年计划”.准确来说是四年左右,如果你能够按照策略,坚持下去,相信你能有不错的收益.这个策略最大的问题就是,太慢了,很多了坚持不住,总是想“百倍杠杆拉满”来快速赚钱,这种方式风险比较大,不建议大家去尝试. 这个策略的核心，是认清周期的节奏，拒绝贪婪和恐慌. 下一期,我讲继续分享有关策略的内容, 然后我也会给大家讲讲杠杆,永续合约这些东西以及一些概念.
Hello everyone, I’m shousake. Let’s continue the topic from the end of the last article—about trading strategies.
The Four-Year Cycle:
1. Historical Overview
When we talk about the four-year cycle, many of you might already be familiar with it. Bitcoin has a distinctive feature: it undergoes a halving roughly every four years. This gives rise to the bull and bear market cycle of about four years. Think back to the famous 2017 ransomware “WannaCry”—it demanded Bitcoin payments in exchange for decryption keys. At that time, Bitcoin had already reached a high of $30,000! It showed how influential Bitcoin had become. Back then, many exchanges hadn’t even been established yet, with only a few like Huobi and Gate.io in operation.
I started paying attention to Bitcoin around 2019–2020. I didn’t understand much at that time, but during that cycle, it dropped to as low as $3,000. Later, around November 2021, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high—$69,000. I thought the price was quite high back then, but I was too busy to dive deep into the crypto world. After that bull market ended, the price dropped to around $15,000.
It wasn’t until 2024 that I officially entered the crypto space. The bull market in 2024 also pushed the price to around $109,000. Now, in May 2025, another bull market has arrived, although it’s likely part of the same cycle as 2024’s.
2. Does This Pattern Still Exist?
Yes, it does! But as you can tell from history, the cycle for Bitcoin doesn’t follow an exact four-year schedule. This year’s bull market, for example, may be extended, but it will eventually come to an end. As I mentioned in the last article, even someone like Trump cannot change the broader trend. So we are not too late—there are still opportunities to profit.
3. How Can We Take Advantage of This Opportunity?
Let’s start with the simplest approach. Bitcoin tends to break through previous highs, unlike many altcoins during an “altcoin season.” For example, Dogecoin (DOGE) reached a peak of $0.71 in the past, but only reached $0.48 in the 2024 bull market. What does that tell us?
For many other tokens, a bull market doesn’t necessarily mean new all-time highs. Why bring this up? Because I once heard someone say, “If you buy Bitcoin, you’ll definitely profit within five years.” This statement assumes that the four-year cycle remains ideal and that Bitcoin will continue to break its previous highs.
Some people buy altcoins—even well-known ones like Ethereum, a major Layer 1 chain and not a typical “altcoin”—and believe they’ll eventually break even. So they keep going long, hoping to get rich. Some make profits but don’t exit, always dreaming of huge gains, only to get stuck. In the best case, they average down their losses; in the worst case, they cut their losses completely.
Actually, we can improve on this approach. At the top of a cycle, we can short; at the bottom, we can go long; and in the middle, we wait. With this method, we don’t have to wait five years—we could potentially see decent profits in just two.
So what’s the key issue here? The difficulty lies in identifying the top and bottom! But even if we can’t pinpoint them exactly, we can get a good idea—for example, using trend lines. Trend lines are crucial tools for determining tops, bottoms, and breakouts. Within a given range, we can enter the market in phases—like a dollar-cost averaging strategy. Every time the price drops a certain amount, we invest a bit more.
Some might say, “Isn’t this just averaging down?” Yes, but doing this at the top would be terrifying, wouldn’t it? Doing it at the bottom is safer, with better returns, because you don’t have to fear long-term holding.
On the flip side, shorting at the top can also be a good strategy—but tops are harder to predict. The 2024 breakout was quite exceptional, and prices remain high even now. There hasn’t been a correction yet. A correction is expected, and if you’re trapped in a short, a pullback might help you recover.
Some even believe we might see prices reach $150,000 to $200,000 this time. But beware of baseless online hype. Some claim a certain coin will grow several times over—like those who say Dogecoin will hit $3. That’s unlikely anytime soon—it hasn’t even broken its previous high of $0.71. In most cases, it’s important to make your own judgments.
Conclusion:
This article introduces a basic strategy I call the “Four-Year Plan.” More precisely, it’s around four years. If you follow this strategy and stick with it, I believe you can achieve solid returns.
The biggest challenge with this plan is that it takes a long time. Many people can’t stay patient—they want to “go all-in with 100x leverage” and make fast money. That approach carries huge risk and isn’t something I recommend. The core of this strategy is to recognize the rhythm of the cycle and reject greed and panic.
In the next article, I’ll continue discussing strategies, and I’ll also explain concepts like leverage, perpetual contracts, and other related topics.
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