大家好,我是shousake,之前因为帖子字数有限,无法和大家深入讨论关于交易的问题.
残酷的加密市场
在交易的市场中,90%的人都是送钱的,8%的人能够通过自己的努力有所收获,还有2%的人,像特朗普,坐着收割钱的. 这期呢,给大家讲讲,如何活下去,在这个加密市场中.
交易的本质
交易是有逻辑的,而不是当成赌博,因为赌输的概率是很大的,甚至比赌场概率大,所以如果你用合约当成赌博,那么你还不如去赌场(国外的赌场概率很高,甚至接近50%胜率), 彩票也一样,国外的奖金也是相对好一点. 网上经常有人发高倍杠杆的做单,比如凉兮. 凉兮赚了很多,确实,但是他也赔了很多. 没错,他本质上就是一个赌. 而且,熬夜盯盘,频繁交易已经让大多数人崩溃了,他能做到也确实不容易. 但是反观一些,他的回撤很大.
看似稳定的策略, 也会有风险
马丁格尔策略,是一个曾经用于赌博的策略. 假如你有1USDT,盈亏1:1,那么你可以能回亏本,但是,假如第一次赌错了,第二次我加到2USDT,第三次4USDT,是不是当我赢的时候,就会盈利1USDT呢?这个想法非常好,这是一个二项分布,通过翻倍赌注来增加次数,来将我们的胜率提高. 这听起来是非常好的,然而事实上,再小的概率也会发生,所以,当你需要成千上万的本金时,就很难应付. 我曾经模拟试验,每1000次(30%成功率)就会一次是2的14次方,没一万次就会达到恐怖的2的20多甚至30多次方,我们根本没有这么多本金!
外因有而不要依赖
当你用高杠杆进行“赌博”时,还有各种因素干扰着你. 所以,你没有理由使用高杠杆,因为大量的手续费仍然在等你,虽然我能给大家安排60%的减免,但是大家要记住,一切皆是外因,我们要有,但不要“依赖”,就像交易所的活动. 有返佣的同时仍然要注意.
所谓“大神”
再讨论一下网上很多的“大神”,其实,高杠杆有很多模拟仓,假的,为了骗群费. 所谓提供思路,只不过小白们毕竟踏实,因为跟着“大佬”走. 实际上,所有人都没有资格下定论,明天涨还是跌,能做到的,也就是特朗普,人们心中的“川皇”,主导着世界,特朗普一个商人,把所有的事情没有分辨的变成了一个生意.
底层逻辑
其实,也会有人问我,我觉得啊,举个例子,我是计算机专业的,我一开始学习写代码,写什么的时候都要学习,但是现在我不需要学习,我接触SDL做游戏,以及各种交易的API等等. 因为我学习的是思路和方法, 代码库太多了,开发的时候不可能都记住,要会看说明,灵活操作,直接上手,交易也是一样,我们考的是底层逻辑,时局是一部分,比如今年的特朗普,但是记住,不影响交易的底层逻辑,交易是一个长期的过程,我们要长久盈利,而不是让一次亏损,亏掉所有盈利. 其实,网上很多人说来说去,什么止盈止损,入场等,我们应该把它们视为一套底层逻辑,从哲学的角度上,我相信,我们能从随机的世界中找到他的定数!
总结
以上是一些抽象的东西,主要目的是告诉大家,什么事交易,我们要正视交易,而不是投机取巧或者迷信他人.下一期,我将分享一些实际的技巧.
Hello, I’m Shousake. Previously, due to post length limits, I couldn’t dive deep into discussing trading with you all.
The Harsh Reality of the Crypto Market
In the trading market, 90% of people are essentially giving away their money, 8% manage to earn something through hard work, and the remaining 2%, like Trump, simply sit and collect wealth.
Today, I want to talk about how to survive in this brutal crypto market.
The True Nature of Trading
Trading is built on logic, not gambling.
The odds of losing in trading are even higher than in a casino. If you treat futures contracts like gambling, you might as well go to a real casino (where in some countries, the win rate can be close to 50%).
The same goes for lotteries — foreign ones are relatively better.
You often see people showing off their high-leverage trades online, like Liangxi.
Yes, Liangxi made a lot, but he also lost a lot.
Ultimately, it’s gambling.
Staying up all night watching the markets and trading frequently can break most people mentally. Liangxi’s persistence is impressive, but the reality is, his drawdowns are massive.
Seemingly Stable Strategies Also Carry Huge Risks
The Martingale strategy, once popular in gambling, looks attractive at first glance.
Imagine you have 1 USDT, and you double your bet after every loss (2 USDT, 4 USDT, etc.) to secure a net profit of 1 USDT after a single win.
This sounds mathematically solid — a kind of binomial distribution — increasing chances by betting more.
However, even tiny probabilities eventually occur.
When you need thousands or tens of thousands of dollars in capital, things quickly become unsustainable.
From my simulations, once every 1,000 rounds (with a 30% win rate), you might hit a 2¹⁴ scenario. Over 10,000 rounds, you could face a terrifying 2²⁰ or even 2³⁰ magnitude — no one has that much capital.
External Factors Exist, But Don’t Rely on Them
When you gamble with high leverage, you’re not just fighting market movements — other factors also impact you.
High leverage means high fees.
Even if I can offer you a 60% fee discount, remember: external factors exist to assist us, but we must never rely on them.
Same with exchange promotions or rebates — they help, but don’t get dependent.
About the So-Called “Trading Gurus”
Let’s talk about those so-called “gurus” online.
Many of them use demo accounts and fake trades just to lure people into paying group fees.
They claim to “provide strategies,” but in reality, they’re just giving newcomers false hope by pretending to be experts.
In fact, no one can confidently predict whether the market will rise or fall tomorrow — except maybe Trump, the “Emperor of the Free World,” who turns every situation into a business opportunity.
The Importance of Underlying Logic
Some people ask me how I approach trading.
For example, I’m a computer science major.
At first, I had to study everything carefully to write code.
Now, I no longer memorize every library or syntax.
When developing games with SDL or working with various trading APIs, I rely on thinking patterns and methods — not rote memory.
Trading is the same.
We must master the underlying logic.
Trends and events, like this year’s Trump factors, are just surface noise.
They don’t change the deep structure of the market.
Trading is a long-term journey.
Our goal is to achieve sustainable profits — not to let a single loss wipe out months or years of gains.
Many online discussions about stop-losses, take-profits, or entry strategies are, at their core, all part of a foundational system of thinking.
From a philosophical perspective, I believe we can find constants in this seemingly random world.
Final Words
This post mainly aims to help you reframe what trading truly is —
to approach it seriously, not by taking shortcuts or blindly trusting others.
In the next issue, I will share some practical techniques with you all.